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This Just In...
Kevin Fischer is an award-winning veteran broadcaster who has been seen and heard on Milwaukee TV and radio stations for nearly three decades.
Kevin, who is a legislative aide to state Sen. Mary Lazich (R-New Berlin), can be seen offering his views on the news on the public affairs program, “INTERchange,” on Milwaukee Public Television Channel 10. He lives with his wife, Jennifer, in Franklin.
What the "experts" are saying about the Brew Crew
By Kevin Fischer
Sunday, Mar 30 2008, 08:00 PM
The Milwaukee Brewers open their season Monday in Chicago against the Cubs.
Here are some previews from some of the experts.
Sports Illustrated picks Milwaukee to finish 3rd in the NL Central Division:
FROM SI.COM:
"Off-season fixes will aid run prevention. Run generation won't be a problem."
Memo to the baseball blogosphere: Manager Ned Yost doesn't want your help. Same goes for radio jockeys, newspapermen and, for that matter, his mother. "I'm not trying to be Mr. Know-It-All," Yost says, recalling an off-season instance in which Lee Yost passed along an article that suggested some areas of improvement, "but I know where we're going, and I know exactly how to get there."
Where his team was throughout the first four months of last season was in first place in the NL Central. An August swoon (9-18), however, ultimately left Milwaukee two games behind the division-winning Cubs. How did they get there? In large part, according to Yost, because of ineptitude in the field. Despite ranking among the league's top five in runs, homers, slugging and RBIs, the Brewers had the fourth-most errors in the NL. Sabermetrically speaking, in fact, Milwaukee was 28th in the majors in park-adjusted defensive efficiency (the rate at which a team converts balls in play into outs). Slipshod fielding cost the Brewers 44.7 runs -- or about 4.5 wins -- last season, the first since 1992 in which Milwaukee played meaningful games down the stretch.
To fix this, general manager Doug Melvin reshuffled the deck. In January he signed free agent Mike Cameron to a one-year deal to play centerfield, though the three-time Gold Glove winner was suspended for the season's first 25 games because of a positive test for a banned substance. Bill Hall was moved from center to third base, pushing Ryan Braun -- who had the alltime-best slugging percentage for a rookie but also the lowest fielding percentage of any major league player -- to leftfield. There, he'll enjoy the cushion of Cameron's still-considerable range and, Yost hopes, the benefits of simple maturation. Reminds the manager, "Young players develop quicker offensively than defensively."
Those changes will certainly aid Milwaukee's run prevention. Run generation won't be a problem, not only this season but also for years to come. Just ask Pirates lefthander Phil Dumatrait. Last Sept. 9 the first five batters in the Brewers' lineup -- second baseman Rickie Weeks (now 25), shortstop J.J. Hardy (25), Braun (24), first baseman Prince Fielder (23) and rightfielder Corey Hart (25) -- went homer, homer, homer, single, single off Dumatrait, then with the Reds. For the season that group combined for 150 home runs. Fielder blasted 50 homers, making him the youngest ever to hit that many. "We hang out all the time," Braun says of his teammates, "and I think that closeness is one of our biggest advantages as a team."
This year Yost will flip Braun and Fielder in the lineup. As eye-popping as Braun's numbers were, there is one that disturbed Yost: only 29 walks, in 492 plate appearances. "We're trying to get him to be more selective, especially behind Prince. We've talked about it, and he'll be moved out of that four spot if he can't adjust," says Yost, who also batted Braun second in spring training to get his young slugger more at bats.
Alas, the development of homegrown arms will have to catch up to that of the young mashers for the Brewers to take the next step. Only 22, righthander Yovani Gallardo, who had a 3.67 ERA after his June 14 call-up, is a keeper. However, after Gallardo, who will start the season on the DL (arthroscopic knee surgery), and perennially injured Ben Sheets, the most proven starters are the high-contact duo of Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush, both of whom were hit hard in the second half. Righty Carlos Villanueva, 24, and especially lefty Manny Parra, 25, who throws a mid-90s fastball and a big curve, could bolster the rotation. For now, though, they represent a small tweak to a roster that underwent several such improvements this winter, changes that won't be enough to offset the more dramatic moves of the Cubs and the Reds. -- Pablo S. Torre
-->Click on the team names below for preseason analysis and insight from our SI writers and find out how your favorite team (and your dreaded rival) will fare in 2008.
| Playoff Predictions |
| AMERICAN LEAGUE |
NATIONAL LEAGUE |
DIVISION SERIES
Tigers over Red Sox
Yankees over Angels |
DIVISION SERIES
Cubs over Diamondbacks
Rockies over Mets |
CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
Tigers over Yankees |
CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
Cubs over Rockies |
WORLD SERIES
Tigers over Cubs |
FROM FOX SPORTS:
Team Report: Inside Pitch
Inside Pitch | Notes and Quotes | Roster Report
The Brewers had several goals entering spring training, with playing better defense and putting together the best rotation possible topping the list.
With newcomer Mike Cameron in center, Bill Hall shifting to third base and Ryan Braun moving to left field, the Brewers believe their defense has improved. Heading into the final week of the spring, however, the rotation remained something of a riddle.
This much we know: Right-handers Ben Sheets and Jeff Suppan will open in the top two spots in the rotation. The battle for the other three spots was expected to go to the wire, however.
Right-hander Yovani Gallardo was out of the picture immediately after having minor knee surgery. The Brewers hope Gallardo will return to their rotation by mid-April.
Left-hander Chris Capuano was next to drop out of the running, tearing a ligament in his pitching elbow. Capuano, who went his final 18 starts without a team victory in 2007, appears headed for reconstructive surgery and a one-year rehab period.
Then right-hander Claudio Vargas was released, settling the rotation. Right-handers Dave Bush and Carlos Villanueva, plus left-hander Manny Parra, will get the final three spots -- at least until Gallardo is back.
Spring training was a struggle for the double-play combination of shortstop J.J. Hardy and second baseman Rickie Weeks. Hardy was lost for more than a week with an intestinal virus, and Weeks missed nearly as much time with a hand injury.
Yost said he expects Hardy and Weeks to be full-go by Opening Day.
The Brewers used spring training to find a replacement in center for Cameron, who must sit out the first 25 games of the season with a suspension for taking a banned stimulant last year. That choice became an easy one when Tony Gwynn Jr. stepped up and put together one of the best springs of any player.
It could take awhile for the bullpen to settle in. New closer Eric Gagne struggled with his command throughout camp, and setup man Salomon Torres was held back until the late going because of arm soreness. One of the other setup men, Derrick Turnbow, was very erratic, so the revamped relief corps was hardly a fine-tuned machine.
PRIMED FOR A BIG SEASON: 2B Rickie Weeks has been plagued with injuries for two seasons, first his thumb, then a wrist. Finally healthy, Weeks put together a strong finish in 2007, rediscovering his power stroke with nine homers in September and posting an on-base percentage well over .400. Weeks struggled throughout training camp this year, but he's still a player with tremendous offensive upside. He'll bat in the leadoff spot, so the Brewers will count on him to get on base.
ON THE DECLINE: RHP Eric Gagne struggled with his command throughout camp and looked nothing like the dominating closer of a few years back. The Brewers are taking a $10 million gamble on Gagne, so he had better get his act together soon or it could be a rough ride in the early weeks of the season. The Brewers have other choices to go to, such as RHP Derrick Turnbow and RHP Salomon Torres.
FROM CBS SPORTS
Scott Miller's Take
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If nothing else, the Brewers ratcheted up expectations last summer -- both their own and those of their fans. Milwaukee stayed in contention into the last week for the first time in years, and though it was a painful end, Ned Yost's team finished above .500 for the first time since 1992. The Brewers set a franchise attendance record. This is a very likable club, and it's about time Milwaukee baseball caught some momentum.
Video Outlook
Strengths
Few teams can bash with the Brewers. Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun each is a legitimate MVP candidate. Mike Cameron adds a dimension (speed and defense) that this club badly needs -- at least, he'll add it in May when he returns from a suspension for failing baseball's amphetamines test. Rickie Weeks, Bill Hall, J.J. Hardy, Corey Hart ... the bats are here to contend again in '08.
Weaknesses
Milwaukee must tighten up its defense -- which is nothing the Brewers don't know already. To that extent, Braun not only moved from third base to left field, his play there exceeded the Brewers' expectations this spring. Hall will be better at third defensively than Braun was. And Fielder, who ranked last among NL first basemen defensively, took hours of ground balls from coach Dale Sveum this spring.
Difference Maker
Ben Sheets. When he's on the mound, the Brewers have a true ace. When he's on the disabled list -- far too often over the past few seasons -- Milwaukee has a big hole in its rotation. The Brewers can hit, we know that. They'll go as far as pitching and defense take them. | |
FROM ESPN:
We should have known better than to believe the 2007 Brewers were for real. How did this team have 14 more wins than losses on July 1? Best team in the National League? That couldn't last. Ryan Braun was a monster from the minute he was brought up, Prince Fielder has skills, Ben Sheets was healthy, but 47-33? Are you kidding?
The precipitous decline the Brewers suffered, winning only nine games in August and then fighting just to stay above .500 the rest of the way as the Cubs breezed by them, set the stage for the offseason plan, which now appears to be focused at winning this season. Welcome, Eric Gagne, enjoy the one-year deal. Here comes Mike Cameron to patrol center field on his one-year, um, five-month deal. (He has that 25-game suspension thing, ya know.) The Brewers' figure veterans, especially playing for contracts, will be motivated to stay healthy and productive. The team's defense is better, the bullpen is deeper and the young stars like Braun and Yovani Gallardo are in the majors to stay.
The Brewers are in this thing for the long haul, or at least all six months in 2008. Of course, some of the same problems persist this time around, with the notable exception being Braun's horrific defense at third base. He'll now be doing his Pat Burrell impression in left field. But is Gagne, who hasn't pitched well in a second-half since seemingly the Reagan administration, a safe closer? Does the lineup have enough punch outside of Braun and Fielder? You can't think J.J. Hardy will do that again! And Mr. Sheets, what ails you today? Hamstring? Blister? Hemorrhoids? C'mon, we know something is going to cause many missed starts, so don't lie to us.
Meet your 2008 Milwaukee Brewers. As "The Who" once yelled, "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss." Just insert the word "Brewers" for "boss."
Ballpark: Milwaukee's Miller Park is pretty neutral in terms of runs scored factor, ranking Nos. 16, 15 and 16 the past three seasons. Tough to get more neutral than that. The Brewers do bring a lot more power to the table than most teams, though it still doesn't push this ballpark toward favoring hitters or pitchers. Despite an unspectacular pitching staff, the Brewers smacked 70 more home runs than opponents in 2007. Don't credit the pitchers, though. Braun and Fielder are legit power hitters who hit 44 of their combined 84 home runs at home. They'll obviously hit 'em anywhere.
Top Sleeper: Dave Bush. Yeah, yeah, we've been all over this guy for three years now, but the evidence still suggests that Bush has a future in fantasy baseball. A year ago, one had to spend a fairly decent draft pick to get Bush, who was coming off a season in which he had a 1.13 WHIP and showed signs of emerging. OK, so Bush didn't emerge. He went backward, actually. But he's only 28, and the definition of a sleeper, to me, is stealing a player really late in your draft who performs way above expectations. Milwaukee's straight-forward offense doesn't provide anyone like that. One of these years, Bush will figure out how to avoid untimely home runs, improve at pitching from the stretch or whatever his problem has been. Could be 2008.
Intriguing spring battle: Someone has to play center field for the first month while Mike Cameron counts all the money he lost in that potential long-term contract. Cammy will play a very good center field and help fly-ball pitchers like Bush, but he won't do that the first 25 games of the season while he serves a substance-abuse suspension. Bill Hall is the new third baseman and Braun is safely tucked in left field, so expect one of the team's fourth/fifth outfielders to simply get a lot of extra playing time early -- and a leg up for playing time during the annual Cameron DL stint later in the season. Tony Gwynn Jr. and Gabe Gross would appear to be the logical choices, and Gross is the better player. The left-handed hitter has a respectable .850 OPS against right-handed pitching the past two seasons in Milwaukee … and a grand total of three base hits against southpaws. He's an obvious platoon option, possibly with regurgitated strongman Gabe Kapler.
Trainer's room: The Brewers have a number of important cogs in the machine who just can't seem to stay healthy. Start with Sheets, their 29-year-old ace. The last time Sheets started more than 24 games in a season was 2004. Though he has been effective while averaging 21 starts the past three years, fantasy owners who rely on him as their ace should prepare to be active on the free-agent wire. The positive thing about Sheets' lack of durability, if there is one, is that his injuries haven't been shoulder/elbow related. But by now, we can't simply call his problems mere flukes.
The other Brewer to watch is leadoff man Rickie Weeks, who has Brandon Phillips-like upside if he could shake his wrist problems. Weeks tantalizes fantasy owners with his potential. He's a low-average batter but has 30/30 capability if you extrapolate his annual 100-game stats over 162 games. The thumb and wrist are supposedly healthy now, so prepare to pay top dollar for Weeks.
Schedule Preview: The Brewers play in a neutral park with what should generally be the same lineup most days, barring injury, so as a fantasy owner, don't expect a different strategy at certain points in the season. The Brewers open and close April with a series at Wrigley Field to play the "team to beat" in their division, then don't visit Wrigley again until mid-September. Expect the Brewers to have something to play for in the final month, and enjoy a 10-game road trip through hitters parks Philly, Chicago and Cincinnati. Well, enjoy it if you have Brewers hitters, not pitchers.
Future closer: The Brewers have three, maybe even four right-handed pitchers on deck in case Eric Gagne falters or can't stay healthy. None of these pitchers are notably young or brimming with potential. David Riske was given a three-year contract after a solid season in Kansas City, and would seem next in line over wild Derrick Turnbow, rubber-armed Salomon Torres and really wild Seth McClung. Then again, maybe Gagne makes the entire point moot by rediscovering his Cy Young form. Or not.
Backups to watch: The outfield will be relatively deep with Gross, Kapler and Tony Gwynn Jr. around, and Gwynn does offer cheap NL-only speed. Starting catcher Jason Kendall really can't offer much to fantasy owners, as he hit .242 in 2007 and has a total of four home runs in as many years, but reserve Eric Munson does have pop and could deliver five home runs to NL-only owners. Finally, Bill Hall is the starter at third, but he's coming off a below-average campaign, especially against right-handed pitching. Ageless Craig Counsell didn't hit, either, but does have speed, versatility and a left-handed bat.
Fantasy studs: The Brewers have two of them in the middle of the lineup, as both Braun and Fielder project as second-round picks, or higher. While Braun destroyed left-handed pitching to the tune of a sick 1.480 OPS, Fielder hit 40 home runs mostly against right-handers, so opposing teams won't be able to mix-and-match pitching so well. Don't feel shy about grabbing them earlier if you think they'll up their value by stealing bases. Braun ran in the minors and then swiped 15 bases in 20 attempts with the Brewers, though he was just 2-for-3 in September. If he steals 15 bases this season, be happy.
Prospects to watch for 2008: With future ace Yovani Gallardo already in the rotation for good, the next young arm the Brewers could promote is lefty Manny Parra, Now fully healthy after rotator cuff surgery in 2005, Parra struck out a batter per inning in 17 starts at two levels of the minors, then helped the Brewers with 26 strong innings. Parra threw a perfect game in his second Triple-A start, and seems ready for the majors now. He's no Sheets; the DL stint in September happened when Parra broke his thumb trying to bunt against the Cubs.
Prospect to watch for the future: While it's uncertain which spot on the diamond Matt LaPorta will eventually play, there's little doubt his bat will be ready for the big leagues soon, possibly late this season. The No. 7 overall draft pick in 2007, LaPorta has big-time power to all fields and has plate discipline, which should lead to high on-base percentages. If a corner outfield spot opens up in 2008, LaPorta could make a Braun-like entrance.
Eric Karabell is a fantasy sports expert for ESPN.com Fantasy.
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